Arena: Applied Critical Thinking
Serial Inferences
Futuring with Serial Inferences
Step 1
Working in groups of 3-4, identify an opportunity the organization is developing.
On a big sheet of paper, set up a serial inferences futuring map. Decide your time ranges as a group and record them on your map.
Step 2
Move the opportunity into the near-term. If the near-term is true, what else might be true, possible, probable, impossible to create a mid-term and long-term branch. Write clearly ensuring your map is readable.
Step 3
Each group moves to a different table. Add to that group’s thinking beginning in the near-term. You can add new inferences, make comments to strengthen their thinking, ask questions.
Step 4
Return to your map and read the comments and additions by the other group.
Discuss their input.
Step 5
Spend the last 10 minutes in a group discussion with all participants.