Arena:  Applied Critical Thinking

Serial Inferences

Futuring with Serial Inferences

Step 1

Working in groups of 3-4, identify an opportunity the organization is developing.
On a big sheet of paper, set up a serial inferences futuring map. Decide your time ranges as a group and record them on your map.

Step 2

Move the opportunity into the near-term. If the near-term is true, what else might be true, possible, probable, impossible to create a mid-term and long-term branch. Write clearly ensuring your map is readable.

Step 3

Each group moves to a different table. Add to that group’s thinking beginning in the near-term. You can add new inferences, make comments to strengthen their thinking, ask questions.

Step 4

Return to your map and read the comments and additions by the other group.

Discuss their input.

Step 5

Spend the last 10 minutes in a group discussion with all participants.