Arena:  Applied Critical Thinking

Serial Inferences

Futuring with Serial Inferences

Step 1

On a new sheet of paper, prepare a serial inference tree. Next to the tree, create a 3-column chart.

Near-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term

Step 2

Choose a professional opportunity statement from your 3-Column Statement Map. Explore if your opportunity develops what might happen. Fill out your chart as you step your inference near-term, mid-term, long-term.

If this is true, then…

…This is possible

…This is likely

…This is unlikely

…This is untrue/impossible

Serial Inferences
If ___ is true, AND ___ is true, then…
If ___ is true, then ___ is possible.  If ___ is possible, then ___ is also possible…

Example:

The opportunity is to attend a conference.

If I attend the conference in the near-term, then what (possible, likely, not possible, improbable) might happen?

Step 3

If there is time available in your lab, choose a personal opportunity. Develop the opportunity across the three time horizons.

Step 4

With a partner, share what you have developed. Help your partner expand their inferences.