Arena: Applied Critical Thinking
Serial Inferences
Futuring with Serial Inferences
Step 1
On a new sheet of paper, prepare a serial inference tree. Next to the tree, create a 3-column chart.
Near-Term | Mid-Term | Long-Term
Step 2
Choose a professional opportunity statement from your 3-Column Statement Map. Explore if your opportunity develops what might happen. Fill out your chart as you step your inference near-term, mid-term, long-term.
If this is true, then…
…This is possible
…This is likely
…This is unlikely
…This is untrue/impossible
If ___ is true, then ___ is possible. If ___ is possible, then ___ is also possible…
Example:
The opportunity is to attend a conference.
If I attend the conference in the near-term, then what (possible, likely, not possible, improbable) might happen?
Step 3
If there is time available in your lab, choose a personal opportunity. Develop the opportunity across the three time horizons.
Step 4
With a partner, share what you have developed. Help your partner expand their inferences.
