Tentative Conclusions

In this activity you will have the chance to test an opportunity using the elements of the Big Green Hand.

Work in small groups (3-4 people). Review the Vulnerability + Resilience Speed Stating Maps (see Applied Critical Thinking Lab: Speed Stating). Create a knowledge map poster for your resilience test using the chalkboard as a reference. 

Choose one idea from any map to improve resilience. Write the idea as an Opportunity Statement on the pointer finger of the Big Green Hand.

Use the simple sentence structure: “The Opportunity is to ….”

Work through the elements of reasoning refining an Opportunity Statement.

Identify the organization’s higher purpose.

How will this opportunity lead to one of the organization’s higher purposes?

Identify the assumptions behind this opportunity and assign them a certainty and significance fraction.

What are you counting on to be true?

What indispensable information do you need to increase certainty?

Examine Diversity of Perspectives and Relevant Points of View.

Hone the clarity of your statement by identifying core concepts and expanding them.

Use serial inferences to consider your opportunity comprehensively.

Anticipate consequences systemically.

There are four types of consequences:

1. Intended
2. Unintended
3. Impact Aggregated
   across time
   across geographical areas
   across industries
4. Projected Over Time